Why a single number isn't a valuation: how to read a confidence score
Ask five different websites what your property is worth and you'll get five different numbers, each stated with the same flat confidence. None of them will tell you how sure they actually are — and that missing piece matters more than the number itself.
What a confidence score actually measures
A meaningful confidence score isn't a vibe, it's a function of three things: how many truly comparable transactions exist, how recent they are, and how much those transactions agree with each other. A building with fifteen sales in the last quarter that all landed within 4% of each other earns high confidence. A one-of-a-kind penthouse with two comparables from fourteen months ago should not.
- More comparable transactions, in the same building or a very similar one, raises confidence.
- Recent transactions (last 1–3 months) carry more weight than anything older than a year.
- Tight agreement between comparables raises confidence; wide disagreement should lower it and widen the range.
- Unique features — a custom layout, an unusual floor plan — inherently lower confidence, no matter how good the model is.
Reading the range, not just the midpoint
A narrow range (say, ±4%) paired with high confidence means the model found a tight cluster of very similar recent sales. A wide range (±10% or more) with lower confidence is the model being honest that the data is thin — that's more useful than a falsely precise single number.
A quick checklist before trusting any valuation
- Does it show a range, or just one number?
- Does it tell you how many comparables it used, and how recent they are?
- Does the confidence score move when you change details that should matter (like bedroom count or size)?
Try the , or explore the .